When the Rain Stops: Sydney Drought and Fisheries in a Growing City

When the next drought comes, it won’t just test our dams. It will test our rivers, our fisheries, and the way government balances growth with water security. For commercial fishers, who depend on healthy estuaries and regular river flows, the question isn’t just how quickly the dams will empty, it’s whether there will be enough clean water left to keep our catch, our industry, and our seafood supply alive.

Population Growth and Sydney Drought and Fisheries Pressure

Since the last major drought broke in 2008, Greater Sydney has added well over 1.2 million new residents. That represents an increase of more than 25% in less than two decades. Each new resident adds to the daily demand for drinking water, and collectively that surge has pushed annual water demand up by more than 100 gigalitres per year.

Every new suburb means more taps to supply, more lawns to sprinkle, and more pressure on the same dams that also sustain rivers and fisheries.

During the Millennium Drought, which ended in 2008, dam levels in Sydney plunged to around 33%. That was with a smaller population. Next time, with well over a million more people relying on the same storages, the decline will likely be sharper, faster, and last longer.

The Double Burden: Supply and Effluent

It’s not just about how much water goes in. It’s also about what comes out.

Mary Howard posted the other day about dishwasher tablets coated in a dissolvable substance. What impact does that have once it hits the rivers in the treated effluent, not to mention all the pharmaceuticals that pass through our bodies and into our rivers?

What’s the plan for all the effluent? As populations grow, sewage treatment plants face heavier loads. Recycling schemes are meant to turn treated effluent into reusable water, but can they keep up with the pace of development? If they can’t, estuaries risk becoming the dumping grounds for overflow, threatening fish nurseries.

For fishers, this means rivers are hit twice, first from reduced flows, then from increased discharge. The productivity of prawn, squid, and estuary fisheries hangs in the balance.

The Missing Piece in Drought Plans

The Greater Sydney Drought Response Plan ensures water for households, but has little to say about fisheries. Water allocations prioritise taps, industry, and infrastructure. River health is a footnote.

Estuary systems rely on minimum environmental flows to survive. Without them, prawns don’t run, squid don’t spawn, and fish recruitment collapses. Commercial fishers, whose livelihoods and food supply depend on these cycles, are rarely consulted in drought planning. Yet when water is rationed, they are among the first to feel the consequences.

The Bigger Picture

Government is constantly talking about net zero carbon emissions but not discussing the very real thing right in front of us. Right now we have water and it keeps raining, but like everything, it has cycles. When the dry cycle starts again, I don’t think we realise how quickly our dams will empty.

Commercial fishers know that the next Sydney drought and fisheries crisis will not just be about empty taps but about empty nets.

The Big Questions

• How quickly will the dams empty this time with a bigger population drawing on them?

• What is the plan for all the effluent? Can recycling schemes really keep up?

• How do we guarantee both safe drinking water for people and thriving river systems for fisheries?

Until these questions are answered, drought planning remains half-finished.

Call to Action

If government wants seafood on Australian plates, it must build water policy that does more than keep suburban taps running. Drought response must:

1. Guarantee minimum environmental flows to keep estuaries productive.

2. Expand recycling capacity so effluent is safely reused, not dumped.

3. Include fisheries in planning, recognising them as essential food producers, not collateral damage in water management.

Only then can we be sure the next drought won’t wash away generations of fishing families along with our rivers.