Energy Hypocrisy: why our coal policy makes no sense

Australia is winding back domestic coal-fired power while sending ever more coal offshore. That energy hypocrisy leaves families paying more, undermines the middle class, and mirrors what is happening in seafood, where we constrain well-managed local harvests yet lean on imports of variable quality.

Domestic coal use is falling

Coal’s share of our electricity fell from about 54% in 2020 to about 45% in 2024. Over the same period total generation grew, which means coal generation fell in absolute terms even as demand rose.

Exports to China rose anyway

China’s overall coal imports hit a record in 2024. Imports from Australia rose to about 83 million tonnes in 2024, up from about 78 million tonnes in 2020. In other words, while we pulled coal out of our own grid, we shipped more of it to China.

What happened to bills

The Default Market Offer, the standing-offer safety-net price, fell in NSW and SA for 2024–25, but rose in South-East Queensland. Then for 2025–26 the regulator allowed fresh increases, roughly 0.5–3.7% in SEQ, 2.3–3.2% in SA and 8.3–9.7% in NSW. That is the lived reality driving cost-of-living pain, even after rebates.

Translation: we are closing domestic coal capacity faster than the system can cheaply replace it, then watching regulated prices ratchet up again the following year.

The middle class squeeze

When wholesale and network costs jump during a transition, the increases flow through to small businesses and households that cannot hedge like large corporates. Price paths explain why people feel squeezed, despite last year’s temporary relief in some regions.

The same pattern in seafood

On the water, Australia’s wild-catch fisheries are among the best managed in the world. The latest national stock assessments show the vast majority of assessed stocks are sustainable or recovering. Yet governments keep adding closures or tighter constraints, and we fill the gap with more imports. Australia already relies on imports for most of the seafood we eat, much of it from places where management and enforcement are less consistent and the risk of illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing is higher. That is the seafood version of energy hypocrisy: constrain clean, audited local supply and lean more on overseas product of uneven standard.

Call it what it is: energy hypocrisy

If the goal were purely emissions, exporting more coal while shuttering efficient domestic plant is incoherent. We export the fuel, import price volatility, and ask households to carry the cost. The same mindset hurts local fishers and consumers, who would be better served by transparent, domestic production under Australian rules.

A saner path

• Plan retirements to track firm capacity, not dates. Publish a binding reliability rollout with storage and transmission milestones before closures.

• Treat price stability as a transition metric, alongside emissions.

• In fisheries, prefer audited Australian product. Keep sustainability science front-and-centre, but stop offshoring our dinner to jurisdictions with weaker oversight.

If Australia wants lower emissions without hollowing out the middle class, we should produce more of what we use under our standards, not less.